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Anticipation and Expectations Around October Jobs Report Realized

UPDATE: Actual performance as reported from the Labor Department: nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 (higher than the anticipated 450K but slightly lower than other forecasts calling for 571K), the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% (more movement than the expected 4.7%), and wages rose .4% (up 4.9% year over year as expected).

A sharp increase from the 195,000 U.S. jobs in September, 450,000 jobs are expected to have been added in October according to Dow Jones estimates. As well, hourly wages are seeing an increase of 4.9% year-over-year. Those watching the market are taking a close look at inflation, and wage growth has a big impact on that direction. The newly released ADP National Employment Report comes in at 571,000 added nonfarm, private-sector jobs in October.

From ADP payroll data:

Here are the jobs added in October by sector:

  • Goods-producing, up 113,000
    • Natural resources/mining, up 6,000
    • Construction, up 54,000
    • Manufacturing, up 53,000
  • Service-providing, up 458,000
    • Trade/transportation/utilities, up 78,000
    • Information, up 14,000
    • Financial activities, up 15,000
    • Professional/business services, up 88,000
      • Professional/technical services, up 54,000
      • Management of companies/enterprises, up 4,000
      • Administrative/support services, up 29,000
    • Education/health services, up 56,000
      • Healthcare/social assistance, up 47,000
      • Education, up 10,000
    • Leisure/hospitality, up 185,000
    • Other services, up 22,000

The increase in jobs and wages are thought to be due to a decrease in COVID-19 cases and an improving economy. The unemployment rate, at 4.8%, is thought to recede a bit to 4.7% – inching its way closer to the pre-pandemic unemployment rate of 3.5% in February 2020.

The hiring pace is expected to continue to be a quick one through at least Q2 2022 with continued jobs growth. Bank of America U.S. economist Alex Lin weighed in on this, expecting 600K jobs per month in Q1 and 400K jobs per month in Q2 before falling to the previous status quo of 200K. The industries to enjoy big jumps in jobs growth? Retail, food and beverage, and hospitality/hotels.

While the forecasted jobs rate of 450K in October is exciting, Grant Thornton chief economist Diane Swonk expects October payrolls to be closer to 650K.

We shall see how October nets out when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases their latest report, expected on Friday.

Until then,

Erin and Team BountyJobs

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